The Banff World Television Festival commissioned Nordicity Group to prepare a green paper for the festival's town hall discussion on the future of television in Canada. That paper is one of many released this year that attempts to put some perspective to the technology-led changes that are sweeping the industry.
In January, the IBM Institute for Business Value released a seminal work entitled The End of Television as We Know It -- A Future Industry Perspective. This was followed by two additional IBM papers by two solitudes' Alan Sawyer (who was with IBM until the end of last month) entitled The End of Television as We Know It -- A Canadian Perspective and The Future of Television in Canada. The common theme throughout all of these papers, IBM and Banff-Nordicity, is that the industry is in a state of considerable disruption, brought about by changes in technology. The Nordicity paper, however, is at odds with the main IBM conclusion, stating that "digital media will not result in the end of TV as we know it, despite IBM's catchy title". The green paper goes on to say, "[a]s any communications major knows, no new media has obliterated the previously dominant traditional media". While true, this statement dismisses the key point IBM is trying to make -- that is, that television "as we know it" is ending, not that television in and of itself will disappear. No one is likely to dispute that, as the green paper suggests, TV "will still be in our grandchildren's households in future decades." Where two solitudes would differ with the Nordicity green paper is in how -- and by whom -- that content will be created and/or delivered. The green paper says that limitations on internet bandwidth mean that existing distribution mechanisms such as cable TV and satellite will remain in place as inexpensive and effective ways of distributing content -- and "will remain the dominant distribution system for TV programming". two solitudes position, however, is that the impact of increasing bandwidth, edge caching technologies and fibre to the home should not be underestimated, and the very fact that there are, and will continue to be, multiple content pipes into the home merely underscores the fact that change to existing business models is inevitable (and, therefore, we are seeing the end of TV as we know it). The Banff paper is also at odds with IBM's position that video on-demand will destroy linear programming as we know it. Only time will tell, and until the advent of more complete content catalogues and robust technology infrastructure, extensive video-on-demand (VOD) uptake will remain limited in the short term but will also, we believe, remain a long-term, widely adopted inevitability.
The Banff green paper can be downloaded from the official festival website at www.banff2006.com.
In January, the IBM Institute for Business Value released a seminal work entitled The End of Television as We Know It -- A Future Industry Perspective. This was followed by two additional IBM papers by two solitudes' Alan Sawyer (who was with IBM until the end of last month) entitled The End of Television as We Know It -- A Canadian Perspective and The Future of Television in Canada. The common theme throughout all of these papers, IBM and Banff-Nordicity, is that the industry is in a state of considerable disruption, brought about by changes in technology. The Nordicity paper, however, is at odds with the main IBM conclusion, stating that "digital media will not result in the end of TV as we know it, despite IBM's catchy title". The green paper goes on to say, "[a]s any communications major knows, no new media has obliterated the previously dominant traditional media". While true, this statement dismisses the key point IBM is trying to make -- that is, that television "as we know it" is ending, not that television in and of itself will disappear. No one is likely to dispute that, as the green paper suggests, TV "will still be in our grandchildren's households in future decades." Where two solitudes would differ with the Nordicity green paper is in how -- and by whom -- that content will be created and/or delivered. The green paper says that limitations on internet bandwidth mean that existing distribution mechanisms such as cable TV and satellite will remain in place as inexpensive and effective ways of distributing content -- and "will remain the dominant distribution system for TV programming". two solitudes position, however, is that the impact of increasing bandwidth, edge caching technologies and fibre to the home should not be underestimated, and the very fact that there are, and will continue to be, multiple content pipes into the home merely underscores the fact that change to existing business models is inevitable (and, therefore, we are seeing the end of TV as we know it). The Banff paper is also at odds with IBM's position that video on-demand will destroy linear programming as we know it. Only time will tell, and until the advent of more complete content catalogues and robust technology infrastructure, extensive video-on-demand (VOD) uptake will remain limited in the short term but will also, we believe, remain a long-term, widely adopted inevitability.
The Banff green paper can be downloaded from the official festival website at www.banff2006.com.
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